A depressing, but sobering, look at Nintendo’s current situation.

But the Wii was a fad, in retrospect. The Wii U looks like it’s going to have more Gamecube-like appeal: long-time Nintendo fans will like it, but it won’t do well in the rest of the market. …

Nintendo needs the profits of the high end, but they can’t compete there anymore. All of the growth is happening at the low end, which is mostly games that they can’t or won’t make. And even if they succeeded in casual gaming, it probably wouldn’t bring the kind of profit that they need.

I don’t think Nintendo has a bright future. I see them staying in the shrinking hardware business until the bitter end, and then becoming roughly like Sega today: a shell of the former company, probably acquired for relatively little by someone big, endlessly whoring out their old franchises in mostly mediocre games that will leave their old fans longing for the good old days.